/ SIGHTING RATES

93% OF THE NIGHTS WE GO OUT

Nobody can promise you the northern lights. But the odds aren’t random — and most of what moves them gets decided before you ever step outside.

Two Aurora Experts guests under a red and green aurora in Iceland

/ THE NUMBER

A Number, Not a Promise

Most operators won’t give you a number at all. The ones who do rarely tell you how they arrived at it.

Ours is straightforward. Across a season, we see the northern lights on 93% of the tours we run. Not 93% of nights in Iceland — 93% of the nights we looked at the forecast and decided the sky was worth going out under. That second half is where the number actually comes from, and it’s the half nobody explains.

Which means the honest version is a little counterintuitive: our sighting rate is high partly because of the nights we don’t run. Every tour we call off is a tour that never had a chance to fail. We could pad the calendar, take everyone out regardless, and watch the number fall — plenty do. We’d rather keep the number real and tell you exactly what’s behind it.

So here’s what’s behind it. Six things decide whether you see the aurora on any given night. Three of them are entirely out of everyone’s hands. Three of them are the reason it’s worth going out with someone who does this every night of the season.

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/ THE FACTORS

What Decides the Odds

Solar Activity

The aurora starts on the sun. Charged particles leave it, take a couple of days to reach us, and hit the atmosphere hard enough to make it glow. The forecast puts a number on how strong that stream should be tonight — the one everyone quotes, and the one that tells you least on its own. What matters just as much is the direction of the magnetic field arriving with it: pointing south, it links onto Earth’s own field and the lights come easily; pointing north, the same stream can slide past and give you very little. It shifts by the hour and can’t be forecast far ahead. So there are nights with a perfect, cloudless sky and nothing much in it — uncommon, and the honest limit at this end. We can find you clear air. We can’t make the sun cooperate.

Solar Activity

The aurora starts on the sun. Charged particles leave it, take a couple of days to reach us, and hit the atmosphere hard enough to make it glow. The forecast puts a number on how strong that stream should be tonight — the one everyone quotes, and the one that tells you least on its own. What matters just as much is the direction of the magnetic field arriving with it: pointing south, it links onto Earth’s own field and the lights come easily; pointing north, the same stream can slide past and give you very little. It shifts by the hour and can’t be forecast far ahead. So there are nights with a perfect, cloudless sky and nothing much in it — uncommon, and the honest limit at this end. We can find you clear air. We can’t make the sun cooperate.

Cloud Cover

This is the one that decides it. Not the solar forecast — the sky between you and it. And it’s worth being blunt: heavy, total cloud beats everybody. There’s no guide, no vehicle, no secret spot that sees through it. When a night is genuinely closed in from coast to coast, nobody in Iceland is seeing the aurora that night, and any operator telling you otherwise is selling you a bus ride.

Cloud Cover

This is the one that decides it. Not the solar forecast — the sky between you and it. And it’s worth being blunt: heavy, total cloud beats everybody. There’s no guide, no vehicle, no secret spot that sees through it. When a night is genuinely closed in from coast to coast, nobody in Iceland is seeing the aurora that night, and any operator telling you otherwise is selling you a bus ride.

Darkness & Moonlight

The aurora is there year-round; you just can’t see it against a bright sky. That’s why the season runs September to April — the rest of the year Iceland doesn’t get properly dark. A full moon works the same way on a smaller scale. It washes out the faint displays and leaves the strong ones intact. Worth knowing when you pick your dates, not worth planning your whole trip around.

Darkness & Moonlight

The aurora is there year-round; you just can’t see it against a bright sky. That’s why the season runs September to April — the rest of the year Iceland doesn’t get properly dark. A full moon works the same way on a smaller scale. It washes out the faint displays and leaves the strong ones intact. Worth knowing when you pick your dates, not worth planning your whole trip around.

Time On Location

The aurora doesn’t arrive on a schedule. It builds, fades, and often does the best of its work in a narrow window that nobody could have predicted an hour earlier. Which means the single most reliable way to see it is to still be standing there when it happens. Groups that get shuttled back early miss displays that started twenty minutes later. We stay longer if we need to.

Time On Location

The aurora doesn’t arrive on a schedule. It builds, fades, and often does the best of its work in a narrow window that nobody could have predicted an hour earlier. Which means the single most reliable way to see it is to still be standing there when it happens. Groups that get shuttled back early miss displays that started twenty minutes later. We stay longer if we need to.

Room To Move

Cloud cover isn’t uniform. On a lot of nights there’s clear sky somewhere within reach — it’s just not where you started. Small groups can act on that. We check the forecast through the day, pick where to start, and change our minds on the road if the sky tells us to. A full coach that has to keep to a fixed stop can’t.

Room To Move

Cloud cover isn’t uniform. On a lot of nights there’s clear sky somewhere within reach — it’s just not where you started. Small groups can act on that. We check the forecast through the day, pick where to start, and change our minds on the road if the sky tells us to. A full coach that has to keep to a fixed stop can’t.

The Call To Go

Every night of the season we look at the sky and decide. Some nights the answer is no, and we say so early rather than run a tour we already know won’t deliver. That decision is the quiet reason the 93% holds up. It’s a rate built from nights that genuinely had a chance — not from every night we could have sold a seat.

The Call To Go

Every night of the season we look at the sky and decide. Some nights the answer is no, and we say so early rather than run a tour we already know won’t deliver. That decision is the quiet reason the 93% holds up. It’s a rate built from nights that genuinely had a chance — not from every night we could have sold a seat.

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/ THE 93%

How We Count It

A sighting rate is only worth anything if you know what’s being counted. Ours is one season’s tours, recalculated at the end of each season — not a lifetime average that quietly gets easier to defend every year it survives.

A night counts as a sighting when the aurora was visible to the naked eye. Not when a long exposure pulled a green smudge out of a grey sky — cameras see the aurora far better than we do, and a rate built on what the sensor caught rather than what people actually saw is a rate built to flatter itself. Some of those 93% were a soft band moving slowly overhead rather than the sky tearing open. We count those. We don’t dress them up as something else.

What the number can’t tell you is what happens on your night. It’s a season-wide average, and averages don’t apply to individual evenings — on any given night you either see them or you don’t. Book two nights if your trip allows it. It’s the single biggest thing you can do for your own odds, and it costs you nothing to know that in advance.

And when a night does come up empty — clear sky, quiet sun, the field pointing the wrong way — you come back out with us again, free.

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/ FROM OUR TRAVELLERS

In Their Words

  • ★★★★★

    Cannot recommend this enough! Heimer is so passionate about the phenomenon, his energy is contagious. Loved hearing his knowledge and watching him be a ‘storm chaser.’

    Lilly
    From Richmond
  • ★★★★★

    This was one of the most magical experiences of my life. The best part was our host, Heimir — extremely knowledgeable and helpful, and so incredibly passionate about every single moment of the evening. His photography skills and photos were breathtaking. This has to be in the top 5 best Airbnb experiences on planet earth. 🌍

    April
    From Chattanooga
  • ★★★★★

    I can’t say enough good things about Heimir and the Aurora Experts. Without Heimir’s many years of experience I believe we would have never seen the lights on our entire trip. He was so knowledgeable and personable, he made this excursion very special! If we ever go back to Iceland I would most certainly book with him again.

    Angela
    From Sacramento
  • ★★★★★

    Heimir is so passionate about northern lights as he was born and raised in Iceland, very knowledgeable and even a great photographer! He informed us of the weather condition and kept everything realistic and we ended up seeing the most amazing northern lights dancing in front of our eyes. I will never forget that experience!!

    Jessie
    From Connecticut
  • ★★★★★

    Heimir is an absolutely incredible host. While I understand that seeing the lights are no guarantee, he found them for us and they put on a spectacular show. Heimir is so knowledgeable and enthusiastic, he made the trip insanely fun.

    Jeffrey
    From Denver
  • ★★★★★

    Heimir gave us one of the most magical experiences of our entire trip. He went above and beyond to make sure we were comfortable, providing warm snow suits, delicious hot chocolate, and wonderful Icelandic treats while we waited for the lights to appear. Heimir is truly a gem of a person — kind, thoughtful, and genuinely passionate about sharing the beauty of Iceland. He is also an incredible photographer.

    Deeksha
    From London, UK

About the northern lights

Can you guarantee I’ll see the northern lights?
What are my actual chances on a given night?
Why didn’t we see anything even though the sky was clear?
What’s the best month to come?
How many nights should I plan for?
What happens if you cancel the tour?
Does a full moon ruin it?

Some Nights
The Sky Does This

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Some Nights
The Sky Does This

Book Now